Ethiopia’s strategic positioning in the Horn of Africa necessitates strong regional alliances to maintain its geopolitical and economic stability. In recent years, Ethiopia has increasingly demonstrated a preference for closer ties with Somaliland over Djibouti. Several factors contribute to this growing trust, including Somaliland’s political stability, alignment with Ethiopia’s economic interests, and shared security concerns in a volatile region.
- Political Stability and Governance
One of the primary reasons Ethiopia places more trust in Somaliland than in Djibouti is Somaliland’s relative political stability and consistent governance. Since restoring its sovereignty from Somalia in 1991, Somaliland has maintained a largely peaceful environment with democratic institutions, regular elections, and a functioning government that has proven more stable than many of its neighbors. In contrast, Djibouti, while also stable, has faced criticism for its authoritarian practices and a lack of democratic freedoms, which could pose risks to Ethiopia’s long-term strategic interests.
- Economic Interests and Port Access
As a landlocked country, Ethiopia heavily relies on access to ports for its international trade. For decades, Djibouti has been Ethiopia’s primary gateway to the sea, handling about 95% of Ethiopia’s maritime trade. However, this reliance on Djibouti has created economic vulnerabilities, including high costs and logistical bottlenecks. Acknowledging these challenges, Ethiopia has sought to diversify its access to the sea and signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Somaliland on January 1, 2024. This MOU not only reduces Ethiopia’s dependence on Djibouti but also provides a more cost-effective and efficient trade route through Somaliland’s Berbera Port. Collaborative infrastructure projects, such as roads connecting Ethiopia to Berbera, further strengthen economic ties and foster mutual trust between Ethiopia and Somaliland.
- Shared Security Concerns
Security cooperation is another crucial factor influencing Ethiopia’s preference for Somaliland over Djibouti. The Horn of Africa is a region plagued by insecurity, including terrorism, piracy, and inter-state conflicts. Somaliland and Ethiopia share a common interest in combating extremism and maintaining regional stability. Both regions face threats from Al-Shabaab and other militant groups operating in Somalia and the broader region. Somaliland’s proactive approach to counterterrorism aligns closely with Ethiopia’s security priorities. This shared concern for security has led to closer military and intelligence cooperation between Ethiopia and Somaliland, thereby enhancing mutual trust. As Ethiopia continues to navigate the complexities of regional politics in the Horn of Africa, its relationship with Somaliland is likely to remain a cornerstone of its strategy for ensuring economic growth, security, and regional influence. Through collaboration on political, economic, and security fronts, Ethiopia and Somaliland are building a partnership that could redefine regional dynamics in the Horn of Africa.
Wrote by: Yassin H.
Security Analyst, Political Activist, SNM Veteran.