Ethiopia:
Waa cida mashruucan wadata, Abay oo dhaxlay xaalad Federalism kii khatar waajahayo, bulshadii Ethiopia qoomiyadaheedii karaahiyo badan iyo colaad huursan dhex taal, regime kii hore na laga daalay, waxa uu istusay laba mashruuc in uu iskugu sii hayn karo Ethiopia:
1. Waa mid gudaha ah: oo ah dabcinta nidaamkii qalafsanaa ee hore, damaanaqaadka xoriyado cusub, democracy, dib u heshiisiin, cafis jabhadihii hore iwm (lama yaqaan meel ay saldhigan, tijaabadeeda May 2020 doorashada ayaa la arki doonaa halkay ku biyo shubato).
2. Midna waa mid dibada ah: taas oo ku dhisan nabada gudaha ina jaarkii “hostile surrounding states”/dawladaha jaarka ee colaada gaamurtay kala dhaxaysay jawi cusub lagu sooro, kaas oo isku dhigay Abay inuu yhy “man of peace” una jartay Nobel peace prize tii 2019.
Danaha dhaqaale, siyaasadeed, amni, strategy deed na wey u dhex socdaa.
Sidoo kale waxa jirta iyana in ay Ethiopia oo dhaqaale soo kacaya “east African powerhouse” ahi ay cidlo ku dareemayso mandiqada ay ka jirto xulafada dhaqaale ee adag “Eastern African community EAC”.
Somalia:
Dad badani farmaajo wey ku dhaleeceynayaan waxayna u arkaan nin waxan dantiisa ahayn iska ag joog-jooga, lkn wey ka duwanthy xaqiiqdu, farmaajo waayahan cusub waxa uu isna ka dheefay siyaasadiisii ahayd:
1. Ka adkaanshaha M/goboleedyada dawlad ismoodka noqday iyo far soo dheeraatay, midnimada iyo dawladnimadana wiiqaysay
2. In ay Ethiopia oo player ka ugu weyn mandiqada ahayd ay faro-gelinteedii ka yareyso oo qodobka sare aad uga caawisay.
Eriteria:
Waxay u muuqataa inay noqonayso ta ugu faa’iidada yar sida ay qolooyin badani ku doodayaan, waayo?
1. Dhaqaale ahaan: laga yaabaa in ay nabada iyo iskaashiga cusub ay ka dheefto in dekedeeda “Asab” ay noqoto mid siyaasada Ethiopia ee ku aadan kala duwida meelaha ay wax kala soo degto “diversification of supply routes”, lkn dhanka kale dheefaha weyni waa Ethiopia oo dhaqaalaheeda sida fiican u koraya laga yaabo inay uga hesho suuq fiican, wadanka hadhay dhaqaale ahaan ee jaarkeeda.
2. Siyaasad ahaan, Afewarki card uu ku khuukhiyo dadkiisa ayey cadaawada Ethiopia ahayd, hada film kaasi waa kasoo xidhmay, weliba hadii ay furfurnaanta iyo democracy ga Ethiopia najaxdo, khatar weyn iyo baraarug heeryo iska kicin ah oo ka horyimaad baa laga yaabaa, (40% scenario, laga yaabaa scenarios kale oo toggan in uu isagu ku dheelayo).
Sacad Makaawi